Refreshing the UK Energy 2050 Scenarios

16 Sep 2011

Under the UK Energy 2050 project, UKERC developed a set of scenarios designed to explore different pathways towards a low carbon, resilient UK energy system. We are now in the process of refreshing a sub-set of these scenarios to reflect various changes that have taken place since the scenarios were first developed in 2008.

The changes include:

  • Use of the most recent version of the MARKAL-MED model
  • Revised assumptions about the cost of key technologies such as carbon capture and storage
  • A more consistent approach to the specification of discount and investment hurdle rates
  • An up-to-date characterisation of current and planned “additional” energy and climate policies
  • Alternative assumptions about future gas prices, reflecting changed perceptions about the possible role of unconventional gas.

UKERC was motivated to revise the scenarios because a number of our new projects had been planning to make use of the previous, but increasingly out-dated, UK Energy 2050 scenarios. We are keen to make the results as widely available as possible. When the work is completed at the end of November, we will put a report of the work online and add detailed results in spreadsheet form to the UKERC Energy Data Centre.

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Notes to Editors:

For any queries about the work in general, please contact UKERC ( The scenarios are being run and analysed by Ilkka Keppo in the UKERC Energy Systems theme based at University College London (