Years Active: 2009-2014


Researchers from the Energy Demand theme developed scenarios for personal transport and addressed the socio technical challenges of a transition to a low carbon transport system. Specifically, they examined the timing and scale of uptake of plug-in vehicles in the private car market in the UK using a disaggregated consumer segmentation approach.

Researchers developed and used the updated and enhanced UK Transport Carbon Model to address impacts of a range of policy measures including fiscal measures (graded purchase taxes, vehicle excise duties and vehicle scrappage incentives), high speed rail development and changes to motorway speed limits. This involved improving the UK Transport Carbon Model developed in UKERC Phase I by incorporating new insights on consumer preferences and behaviour as well as the collection of new data including new transport energy vectors and new vehicle technology.

A range of international presentations on transport energy demand were made, and the team were invited to give talks on the scenario modelling work by DECC, CCC and EST.  The UKTCM documentation has been downloaded more than 6,500 times (as of September 2013), and UKERC have informal agreements on collaborating and using the model with a number of UK universities including UCL, Cambridge and Leeds.

In UKERC funded doctoral research, Craig Morton examined consumer demand for low emission vehicles (LEV) in the UK by assessing the influence of socio-psychological constructs over LEV preference and using a consumer segmentation approach.

Key Outputs

  • Brand, C., Anable, J. and Tran, M. (2013). Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon transport system: the role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 49: 132–148.
  • Brand, C., Tran, M. and Anable, J. (2012). The UK Transport Carbon Model: An Integrated Life Cycle Approach to Explore Low Carbon Futures. Energy Policy, 41: 107–124. Special Issue on Modeling Transport (Energy) Demand and Policies.
  • Anable, J., Brand, C., Tran, M. and Eyre, N. (2012). Modelling Transport Energy Demand: A Socio-technical Approach. Energy Policy, 41: 125-138. Special Issue on Modeling Transport (Energy) Demand and Policies.
  • Morton, C., Anable, J., Nelson, JD. & Schuitema, G. (2012). Diffusion Analysis of the Emerging Market for Low Emission Vehicles. Paper presented at UTSG 44th Annual Conference, Aberdeen, UK, 4-6 January 2012.
  • Brand, C., Tran, M. and Anable, J. (2011) Low carbon vehicle taxation and its potential to accelerate transitions to a low carbon transport sector in the UK. Proceedings of the ECEEE Summer Study, France, 6-11 June 2011.
  • Morton, C. and Anable, J. (2010). Demand Drivers in the Emerging Market for Low Emission Vehicles in Scotland. Paper presented at Scottish Transport Applications and Research STAR Conference, Glasgow, UK, 21 April 2010.
  • Morton, C., Anable, J. & Schuitema, G. (2010). Electric Vehicles: Will consumers get charged up?. Paper presented at Universities Transport Study Group 43rd Annual Conference, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom, 3 February 2010.
  • Eyre, N., Anable, J., Brand, C., Layberry, R. & Strachan, N. (2010). The way we live from now on: lifestyle and energy consumption. In J Skea, P Ekins & M Winskel (eds), Energy 2050: the transition to a secure and low carbon energy system for the UK. Earthscan, London, United Kingdom.