Years Active: 2009-2014
The aim of this research project was to develop a multi-criteria framework that employs an analytic-deliberative approach to identify and assess risks and uncertainties derived from various future pathways and scenarios. The project was supported by a baseline assessment of current risk and uncertainty associated with the existing energy system, which was used to inform the plausibility of future scenarios.
Employing a distinctive, research-driven approach, the project supported a high level narrative on the delivery of UK energy policy, and promoted a vibrant debate on the uncertainties and risks at various points forward in time, as the uncertainty envelope broadened. Being policy-informed and practitioner-driven, this research was designed to offer an analysis and synthesis of the key risks and uncertainties to policy delivery, an assessment of the weight of evidence for assertions on risk and inform the future research and policy agenda.
The project offers a broad analytic-deliberative framework, which compliments the research ongoing within the UKERC Energy Systems theme by providing a platform whereby techno-economic and socio-political outputs may coalesce forming a single, systemic view of energy. This provides two direct benefits: (a) stakeholders obtain value from the ‘whole system’ analysis, which reveals risks, uncertainties and interdependencies that will benefit policy development by stimulating targeted, critical debate; (b) UKERC researchers are provided a communicative vehicle for sharing their findings, in a systemic context, with the broader community – benefits that extend to all research themes.
This project was led by researchers from Cranfield University.
- Working Paper: Prpich, G., Darabkhani, H.G., Oakey, J. and Pollard, S. (2014). An investigation into future energy system risks: An industry perspective. UKERC Report UKERC/WP/ES/2014/001. UKERC, London.