This report describes the different methodologies available for forecasting oil supply, identifies their key assumptions and sensitivities and assesses their strengths and weaknesses. It highlights a convergence in the literature and draws conclusions regarding the predictive value of such models and the confidence that may be placed in the forecasts obtained.
This report forms part of the TPA’s assessment of evidence for near-term physical constraints on global oil supply. The assessment addresses the following question: 'What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of ‘conventional oil’ will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030?'