This report compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global oil supply, as well as summarizing the lessons learnt from earlier forecasts. It identifies the methodologies and assumptions that are used, assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the associated models and draws attention to the difference between forecasts that see global conventional oil reaching a resource-limited production peak before the year 2030 and those that forecast no such peak.

This report compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global oil supply, as well as summarizing the lessons learnt from earlier forecasts. It identifies the methodologies and assumptions that are used, assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the associated models and draws attention to the difference between forecasts that see global conventional oil reaching a resource-limited production peak before the year 2030 and those that forecast no such peak. In particular, it highlights the importance of the explicit or implicit assumptions regarding the URR of conventional oil and the aggregate post-peak production decline rate and draws some conclusions on the risk of a near-term peak global production. A full summary of the reviewed forecasts is contained in a separate Annex.