Energy Systems > Energy Systems Research Topics

Research Projects

Project ESys.1 Decarbonisation pathways

Key Contact: Gabrial Anandarajah (University College, London)

This project involves analysis of accelerated decarbonisation of the global E3 (energy-environment-economy) system from 2000 through to 2050, with a comprehensive investigation of the costs and benefits of the different decarbonisation options. This involves the construction of a global TIAMS model (successor modelling platform to MARKAL) with a dedicated UK region. Key research questions include the impact on the UK of global resource flows, international emissions trading, and global technology innovation.

Key Outputs

Pye S., Strachan N., Anandarajah G. Usher W. (2010) The UK energy system in an uncertain world: insights from different modelling scales, International Energy Workshop 2010, Stockholm, Sweden

Usher W., Anandarajah G., Strachan N., (2010), The TIAM-UCL Global Energy Systems Model: Critical Comparison of UK and Global Climate Decarbonisation Trajectories, BIEE 2010, Oxford, United Kingdom

Anandarajah G., Kesicki F. (2010) Global Climate Change Mitigation: What is the role of demand reduction?, International Association of Energy Economics Europe 2010, Vilnius, Lithuania

Project ESys.2 Security of oil and gas supplies

Key contact: Paul Ekins (University College, London)

This project involves analysis of UK use of oil, gas and coal from 2020 through to 2050 under different global contexts, in terms of energy security, and how this might be affected by varying degrees of decarbonisation of the UK energy system; investigation of the greater use of biomass fuels for heating and transport.

Key Outputs

McGlade C. (2010) Uncertainties in estimating remaining recoverable resources of conventional oil, 29^th USAEE Conference, Calgary (Student best paper runner-up prize)

McGlade C. (2011) Uncertainties in the long-term availability of crude oil, 34^th IAEE International Conference, Stockholm

Project ESys.3 Energy system uncertainties

Key contact: Neil Strachan (University College, London)

This project involves analysis of energy system uncertainties such as those affecting oil prices, the viability of key technology classes (e.g. CCS), changing policies and/or consumer preferences etc. This will be carried out using a range of modelling approaches including staged optimisation and stochastic hedging strategies the UK MARKAL model family, and analysis via probabilistic input models including the Anderson model as used in the Stern Review.

Key Outputs

Usher W., Strachan N. (2010) UK MARKAL Modelling - Examining Decarbonisation Pathways in the 2020s on the Way to Meeting the 2050 Emissions Target, Report for the CCC 4th budget report, Committee on Climate Change. http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/fourth-carbon-budget/supporting-research

Strachan N. and W. Usher (2010), Stochastic modelling of critical uncertainties in UK long-term decarbonisation pathways, BIEE, Oxford, September 2010

Strachan N., and W. Usher (2011) Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world, Climatic Change, In Press

Usher W. and Strachan N. (2011) Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways, Energy Policy, In Press

The following projects are supported by UKERC's Research Fund and sit within the Energy Systems theme.

Project ESys.4 Carbon Capture and Storage: Realising the Potential

Key contact: Jim Watson (Sussex Energy Group)

This project is conducting an independent, inter-disciplinary assessment of CCS viability from now to 2030 by a three institution partnership from the Universities of Sussex, Edinburgh and Imperial College London in close co-operation with research user organisations. This project is supported through the Research Fund and runs from April 2010 to March 2012.

Key Outputs

Markusson, N. et al (2010) A socio-technical framework for assessing the viability of carbon capture and storage technology. Paper in review with Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

von Stechow, C., Watson, J. and Praetorius, B. (2011). Policy Incentives for CCS Technologies in Europe: A Qualitative Multi-Criteria Analysis Global Environmental Change 21(2) 346-357.