Project ESys.3: Energy System Uncertainties

The enhanced MARKAL model database (3.25) has been used in the successful development of a stochastic version of the model. This new variant has been used in a major underpinning project for the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) 4th budget assessment report. Further policy-modelling work has been done in collaboration with AEA to assist DECC in their assessment of the mid- and long-term decarbonisation pathways.  In addition journal papers using stochastic MARKAL have been drafted/submitted for Climatic Change and Energy Policy.  To further understand the role of uncertainties across the UK energy system, a protocol has been developed and tested for a major expert elicitation process to derive key parameters and their associated uncertainties that form the interlinked inputs and outputs of energy models.

In 2009, the team developed a two-stage stochastic version of UK MARKAL.  Two-stage stochastic programming optimises a near-term hedging strategy according to defined future states of the world.  This allows a user to investigate the effect of future uncertainties on near-term action.