Introduction: Phase I
This research theme, run by King's College London (KCL) and the University of Cambridge's 4CMR (Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research) sought to integrate previous work into a whole-systems approach, which we termed energy-environment-engineering-economy ("E4"). A depiction of E4 modelling is given in the figure below, illustrating its complexity and interdisciplinary nature.
In the first 3 years of UKERC, the ESM theme built comprehensive UK capacity in E4 (energy-economic-engineering-environment) modelling. Full and updated working versions of major UK modelling tools were developed, notably the technology focused energy systems MARKAL and MARKAL-Macro models, and the macro-econometric MDM-E3 model. These models have been used to address a range of UK energy policy issues including long-term carbon reductions, the role of innovation in the future energy system, the development of hydrogen infrastructures, and the uptake of energy efficiency technologies and measures. Further work extended "bottom-up" and "top-down" energy modelling in a hybrid modelling approach. Complementary research focused on analytical underpinnings of future energy scenarios, the role of innovation, and the systematic treatment of uncertainty. KCL and 4CMR researchers provided key inputs into major UK and international energy-economic-modelling policy initiatives including: