12.11.07: UK Energy Experts Test Low Carbon Future

The UK Energy Research Centre Embarks on "UKERC Energy 2050", a Major Research Project Setting out Possible Routes to a Sustainable Future by 2050

The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has embarked on an ambitious research project, "UKERC Energy 2050", to examine the choices the UK could make in establishing a low carbon future within 40 years. 

The Centre's research specialists, acknowledged as leaders in their field, will pool their expertise in setting pathways to achieve the Government's main goals - to reduce carbon emissions and ensure a reliable supply of energy. 

The report will look at the interaction of energy security and climate change policy and the consequences of allowing the UK's carbon reduction commitment to be met through international carbon credits rather than by taking action at home.

UKERC researchers and associates with expertise in economics, engineering and the physical, environmental and social sciences, will begin by outlining visions of possible energy systems. 

According to Government goals, the systems must be both low-carbon and reliable, ie. they must be based on 'clean' energy sources and be able to withstand shocks, such as an interruption in energy supply.  

Researchers will go on to consider the social and economic background against which these goals might be met before setting out possible ways of achieving the transformations needed.

According to the project lead, Professor Jim Skea, Research Director at UKERC, "This major project is significant in bringing in specialists from all disciplines to address the Big Issues facing policy-makers across the world.  We have some of the country's leading experts in energy research confronting the difficult choices facing the Government on the timing and ambition of its carbon reduction and energy security targets.  The report will set out the choices UK policy-makers have in achieving those goals and the challenges associated with whatever route is agreed on."

In developing the scenarios, several questions will be addressed, such as:

• What additional steps must be taken to secure deep cuts in CO2 emissions by 2050?
• How will this affect the share of fuels and technologies in the energy mix?
• How would emission reductions be distributed across sectors to minimise costs?
• What is the additional cost of investing in resilience compared to CO2 emission reductions?
• Will investing in a shock-resistant energy system make it easier or more difficult to reduce CO2 emissions? Will reducing CO2 emissions make the energy system more resilient?

To test each future vision, UKERC will use a variety of analytical tools.  These include life cycle assessments to establish environmental impacts, and learning curve analysis to explore the consequences of different rates of technological change.  The Centre has also developed or built on a number of models that allow it to test the impacts of the choices made.

The project will also challenge the Government's main target: to reduce C02 emissions by 60 per cent by 2050. 

It will explore the realities of achieving greater or lesser cuts in carbon emissions and the impact of early versus late action to reduce emissions. 

Notes to Editors

1. UKERC Energy 2050 will be published in the first half of 2009 and will represent the final output of UKERC's first five year phase; the Centre is in the process of applying for funding beyond April 2009 for phase two.
2. The UK Energy Research Centre's mission is to be the UK's pre-eminent centre of research, and source of authoritative information and leadership, on sustainable energy systems.  It takes an integrated, whole systems approach to energy research.  UKERC incorporates a unique set of interdisciplinary skills covering economics, engineering and the physical, environmental and social sciences.
3. For more information, contact UKERC's Communications Manager Lex Waspe on +44 (0) 20 7594 1574