UK Energy Futures: Mapping Uncertainties and Risks

The aim of this research project is to develop a multi-criteria framework that employs an analytic-deliberative approach to identify and assess risks and uncertainties derived from various future pathways and scenarios. The project will be supported by a baseline assessment of current risk and uncertainty associated with the existing energy system, which will be used to inform the plausibility of future scenarios.

Employing a distinctive, research-driven approach, the project will support a high level narrative on the delivery of UK energy policy, and promote a vibrant debate on the uncertainties and risks at various points forward in time, as the uncertainty envelope broadens. Being policy-informed and practitioner-driven, this research will offer an analysis and synthesis of the key risks and uncertainties to policy delivery, an assessment of the weight of evidence for assertions on risk and inform the future research and policy agenda. A concise, visually appealing presentation will aid executive level engagement in the final output and form a significant contribution to the energy policy debate.

The contribution will be a broad analytic-deliberative framework, which compliments well the research ongoing within the Energy Systems theme by providing a platform whereby techno-economic and socio-political outputs may coalesce forming a single, systemic view of energy. This provides two direct benefits: (a) stakeholders obtain value from the ‘whole system’ analysis, which reveals risks, uncertainties and interdependencies that will benefit policy development by stimulating targeted, critical debate; (b) UKERC researchers are provided a communicative vehicle for sharing their findings, in a systemic context, with the broader community – benefits that extend to all research themes. 

This project is led by researchers from Cranfield University.

Key contact: Professor Simon Pollard, Cranfield University